Naheed Nenshi’s NDP pulled off a stunning upset in Calgary-Shaw Monday, snatching the longtime conservative stronghold from Danielle Smith’s UCP.
Naheed Nenshi’s NDP pulled off a stunning upset in Calgary-Shaw Monday, snatching the longtime conservative stronghold from Premier Danielle Smith’s United Conservatives.
NDP candidate Kyle Campbell emerged victorious in the unofficial count with 7,461 votes (46.6%) defeating UCP candidate Mike Derry, who received 6,879 votes (43%)
Campbell won by 582 votes, or 3.6 percentage points, flipping a riding the UCP carried by nearly 14 percentage points in the 2023 provincial election.
The stunning result delivers a major boost to Nenshi and a significant blow to Smith roughly a year before Alberta’s next scheduled provincial election.
It also marks the first major electoral test in Calgary for Nenshi since the former Calgary mayor took over the NDP.
Calgary-Shaw has been overwhelmingly conservative territory for decades. Since the riding was created, the NDP had won it only once — during Rachel Notley’s province-wide orange wave in 2015.
Former UCP cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz reclaimed the seat for conservatives in 2019 and retained it in 2023.
Her departure from provincial politics triggered Monday’s byelection.
The NDP entered the race hoping to build on its gains in Calgary during the 2023 election, when the party dramatically narrowed the gap in Calgary-Shaw.
Nenshi threw his weight behind Campbell throughout the campaign, portraying the race as an opportunity for voters to rebuke Smith’s government.
“Albertans deserve a government focused on lowering the cost of living, jobs, and great public services like health care and education,” Nenshi said when the byelection was called.
“Albertans don’t have to stand for this government.”
Campbell, an employee benefits manager and former president of the Somerset residents’ association, focused heavily on health care during the campaign.
The NDP also went on the offensive against Derry, portraying the UCP candidate as an extremist and attacking his connections to figures associated with Alberta separatism.
Derry campaigned on affordability, education, health care and government transparency.
Smith personally backed Derry, saying when the byelection was called that he would be a “strong voice for Calgary-Shaw” who would help the UCP keep taxes low, improve public safety and grow the economy.
The defeat will raise immediate questions about the UCP’s ability to hold traditionally conservative Calgary ridings heading into the next provincial election.
Smith conceded the race Monday night, congratulating Campbell on his victory and pledging to work with the newly elected NDP MLA.
“Congratulations to the new MLA for Calgary Shaw, Kyle Campbell,” Smith said.
“The voters of Calgary-Shaw have spoken and our UCP government will work constructively with their new MLA to ensure their constituency’s needs are fully addressed.”
Smith also thanked Derry for putting his name forward and praised the candidates and volunteers who participated in the campaign.
“Our UCP government will continue to work every day to grow our province’s economy, strengthen our core social services and build a stronger Alberta,” she said.
Political observers viewed Calgary-Shaw as a key test of whether Nenshi could build on the NDP’s 2023 gains in Calgary.
Five candidates contested the byelection, including Progressive Tory candidate Kyle Joseph, Alberta Liberal Leader John Roggeveen and Independent Rolly Ashdown.
The election-night results remain unofficial. Elections Alberta will review and verify the count before officially declaring the winner on Sept. 24.