The Edmonton real estate market is starting the new year in a cooler spot, moving towards a comfortable balance for both buyers and sellers.
That’s what the latest forecasts from the Realtors Association of Edmonton and Royal LePage are predicting.
Royal LePage’s Thursday report for the final quarter of 2025 said the aggregate home price rose by 1.2 per cent year-over-year to $466,800, but dropped two per cent quarterly.
It put the median price of a single-family detached home in Edmonton at $515,900 after rising two per cent year-over-year.
Tom Shearer, broker and owner with Royal LePage Noralta, told Postmedia the numbers are a good explanation of what the market saw.
“We went into the year hot, and then it slowed towards the end,” Shearer said.
After an active start to 2025, sales declined in October and November, but December saw a rise as buyers were eager to finish deals before the year closed out.
Now Royal LePage, and the realtors association are saying Edmonton has entered not a buyers’ or sellers’ market, but a balanced market.
This means buyers can expect better options when shopping and more power at the bargaining table, while sellers will still be able to sell homes in a reasonable time and at a fair price.
Shearer said the amount of time the market has been balanced has been very limited over the last six years, adding the city has mostly been a seller’s market during that time.
The latest forecasts are also showing that the average home price is expected to rise at a modest pace this year.
The realtors association’s market forecast predicts the average price across all housing types will rise by 1.3 per cent, reaching $464,000.
Meanwhile, sales are expected to dip five per cent and new listings are expected to increase by just 0.3 per cent.
At a Thursday news conference, RAE board chair Darlene Reid said even though Edmonton had seen a cooling market since an exceptionally hot 2024, the sale numbers are still above what’s typical for the city.
Two major factors affecting the cooling are a decline in population growth, compared to major booms of previous years, and an inventory of housing supply that’s once again growing after a period of shrinkage.
“What really changed in 2025 was supply,” Reid said. “New listings climbed to about 41,900 as more homes and new construction brought inventory back into the market.”
Shearer said the number of homes available on the market had been decreasing since May 2023, but things changed last spring and inventory started to grow.
“After a period of time where the shelves are getting emptier and emptier, we’re actually starting to replenish.”
While single detached homes and row houses are still seeing strong interest, prices for condominiums remained flat, jumping just 0.4 per cent year-over-year, according to Royal LePage.
Meanwhile the realtors association is forecasting the price for apartments/condos to see the most dramatic shift in 2026, with a price decline of four per cent and a drop in sales of 10 per cent.
Reid said an oversupply is the culprit while Shearer attributes this to Edmonton’s continued trend of not being a very condo-centric market.
Single-family detached and row housing remains very affordable in Edmonton compared to the rest of the country and Shearer said this makes people more likely to go for the maximum they can afford.
“Your money just goes further here, so you might as well let it go further.”
As inventory grew and offered more options, borrowing costs are now markedly lower than they were at the beginning of last year, and interest rates are expected to stay stable.
In the final rate adjustment last year, the Bank of Canada held interest rates at 2.25 per cent. This came after four rate cuts last year, and after the high interest rates in 2023.
When asked how rates could affect the market, Shearer said most people are expecting rates to stay flat and aren’t waiting for a change to make a decision.
“They’ll probably activate one way or another.”
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