Drafting in the National Hockey League is all about projecting, trying to figure out whether an 18-year-old with promise will be a prospect or a project four or five years later.

Tough job. It’s like your own teenager, wondering what job they’ll have at 23 or will they be in your basement, playing video games.

Drafting goalies is the farthest thing from a sure thing as the good folks at The Hockey News pointed out before the June draft. Over a 20-year draft period from 2006 to 2025 the Oilers picked 16 goalies and they’ve played a total of 200 NHL games. Stuart Skinner has 197 of those. Olivier Rodrigue (two) and the other by Tyler Bunz.

Where art thou Sami Perhonen. Whatever happened to Miroslav Svoboda?

The Oilers are like most NHL organizations, though. It’s a crapshoot for scouts because a goalie you take in the sixth round might be better than one in the third.

And it’s a little rich to make clear assessments on Oilers drafted goalies the last few years. They’re barely out of their teens, so we await Eemil Vinni, Samuel Jonsson, Nathaniel Day and Daniel Salonen. For now, there’s a strong vibe from Jeff Salajko, who looks over the organizational goalie group.

“We’ve built a pretty good stable of young goaltenders now. These kids are not NHL ready yet because most haven’t played even American League games, never mind National Hockey League, but it’s going to make for healthy competition,” said Salajko, who joined the Oilers four years ago when Ken Holland was GM.

Right now, Tristan Jarry, Devon Levi and the currently injured Frederik Andersen have the Oilers NHL jobs, but the goaltending is in flux, as the kids look on.

Ungar, 24, was a free-agent signing as was Tomkins but it starts with the draft.

“We’ve got Levi on an expiring contract, Andersen too, Matt Tomkins and Connor Ungar in Bakersfield as well, so you don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Salajko.

“You get to late rounds and take a swing… I wouldn’t say you’re throwing a dart at the wall but we’ve picked Samuel in the fifth round, Nathaniel in the sixth, we have a good kid in Finland Salonen (20 years old) who started the first three games for his team in their best league over Antti Raanta with 300, 400 NHL games.

“We added Ryan Cameron this past draft, a different look with a kid who will be going to college (after this year in Sioux Falls, USHL). He could be one of the three goalies on the U.S. world junior team this Christmas in Edmonton.”

And, then there’s Vinni, the 20-year-old second-round draft in 2024. He may be the most talented of the bunch and will start in the ECHL. He’s been spinning his wheels in Finland, not playing much, behind older goalies, or injured.

“He’s making it over for the first time. He had back surgery and the recovery didn’t go great there. He could have stayed there, a place he’s been for three years but we felt we had to get him over for the challenge. He’s on a minor-league contract now and we have two extra years to sign him to an NHL deal,” said Salajko.

“Vinni might lack the details but his athleticism is off the chart. You see him making saves that will be on Save-of-the-Night on ESPN. That’s why he was a second-round pick. You don’t take a goalie in the first 64 of a draft if he’s not elite.”

Salajko has seen the Oilers picking giant goalies in Jonsson, Day and Salonen, but he feels the wheel is turning. Shorter goalies like Levi might just be fine as Jet Greaves in Columbus, Dustin Wolf in Calgary and Alex Nedeljkovic six feet tall or less but athletic.

“The game’s changing. It’s faster, there’s so much lateral play with the other team’s entries (into your zone). Guys have to play a smarter, more controlled game. Devon is fun to watch. It’s a good time for goalies generally. This past draft we set a record with 32 goalies going, they were swinging off the board,” said Salajko.

There’s this feeling that the Oilers might want to move on from Bakersfield’s 32-year Tomkins to find room for either Jonsson or Day to partner with Ungar in the AHL but not so fast, even if Tomkins (300 minor pro or Europe) has only played six NHL games in Tampa.

“You always need a third goalie (with NHL experience) in your organization. I sleep better at night, putting my head on the pillow, knowing I’ve got a veteran who could potentially get NHL minutes. It’s like when we had Calvin Pickard down there, and Connor Ingram last year,” said Salajko.

When Shawn Horcoff was captain of the Oilers, you always had the feeling he had NHL management in his bones. He was a sharp guy, a quick learner, and now he’s been named Red Wings’ interim GM, tasked with signing high-end Swedish D Simon Edvinsson and maybe trading Dylan Larkin.

But this may only be a test drive for Horcoff, who has been with the Wings for 10 years, starting in player development.

With the interim tag, the Wings may just be kicking the can down the road, still looking to see if there’s somebody with a better or different resume out there. Interviews will continue. With camp opening this week, the eminently qualified Horcoff, who looks after the Wings’ AHL team, is likely glad for the shot in the big chair but will try not to look over his shoulder.

It has the same whiff as when GM Peter Chiarelli was fired in 2019 and the Oilers gave the job to assistant general manager Keith Gretzky on an interim basis. He had the gig for less than four months, but Gretzky, currently looking after Bakersfield, wasn’t just a seat-filler.

He traded veteran goalie Cam Talbot to Philadephia for Anthony Stolarz, with Talbot’s game dropping off, but also for cap reasons, two months later. He also traded Ryan Spooner, who never fit in with the Oilers, to Vancouver for fan favourite Sam Gagner.

Gretzky was able and willing, but when the 2019-2020 season ended, while a strong candidate for the full-time job, Ken Holland was suddenly out there, and the Oilers hired him.

This ‘n that

In case you’re wondering, Horcoff is the sixth ex Oilers player to get a GM job after Glen Sather. Kevin Lowe, Craig MacTavish, Mike Grier, Bill Guerin, Steve Staios and now Horcoff.

Oiler assistant GM Bill Scott was certainly on the short list for the GM job in Nashville when Barry Trotz gave it up, with two interviews, one in person, but when Chris McFarland became available in Colorado, they jumped on him.

Ex-Oilers centre Curtis Lazar, who did a nice job in the face-off circle (61 per cent) and on the penalty-kill last year, remains unsigned and there is interest from a high-end European team if the 31-year-old with a wife, two sons and two bulldogs want to go overseas.

Former Oilers goalie Connor Ingram did not get a contract offer or even an NHL PTO, bizarre really, for a guy who had a higher save percentage (.899) than the league average in his 32 games last season. As we know, Ingram has decided to go to school. His wife Sarah is getting her law degree.

“Kind of bummed to see him retire at 29, the starting goalie for us in the playoffs. Maybe his heart wasn’t into it. Maybe his head space, maybe his body wasn’t feeling right. You just want him to be happy. He’s got a long life ahead of him,” said Salajko.

Former Oilers forward Adam Henrique, who could still be an NHL penalty-killer and a faceoff guy over 50 per cent with over 1,100 games on his resume, is still looking for work too. He’s 36, which doesn’t help his case. He screams post-playing management, too, in player development.

Defenceman Alec Regula, who surprised people by making the team out of camp last fall, after missing a full season rehabbing from major knee surgery, had similar health issues in Bakersfield last year and won’t be on the ice for camp.

“Reggie wanted to play some hockey, wanted to push through and things started to get angry,” he said.